Saturday, March 1, 2014

Large UFO Mass Sightings frequency study

Statement: It has been claimed by UFO enthusiasts that mass sightings or sightings in general are becoming more frequent and that a very large mass sighting (possibly by a million people is due to occur soon). There is a build-up to something big.

To determine if large mass sightings are indeed becoming more frequent I have gathered data regarding mass sightings.

Question: Are large mass UFO sightings increasing in frequency (are there more sightings occurring in less time)?

For my purposes I define large mass sightings as ones witnessed by over a hundred people and those witnessed by over a thousand people.

UFO Mass Sightings info obtained from: (took only Kolkata incident from here)

Date                                    Name                                Number of witnesses    
June 1, 1853                Tennessee College Campus                numerous (my estimate: 7-20)  
April 17, 1897              Aurora, Texas                                   citizens (my estimate 6-24)
Feb 25, 1942               Battle of Los Angeles                         dozens, poss. more
Jan 7, 1948                  Madisonville, Kentucky,Mantell killed    dozens
July 29, 1952               White House UFO incident                   dozens to a hundred?
Sept,13-25, 1952         Operation Mainbrace                          multiple (my estimate: 5-25)
27 Oct, 1954               Italian Stadium                                   10 000
Nov 2, 1957                Levelland, Texas                               15 or more
Dec 9, 1965                 Kecksburg Incident                           numerous (estimate: 12-24)
April 6, 1966                Westfall UFO Encounter, Australia    more than 200 and prob. less than 230
April 17, 1966              Portage County Police Chase                    about 12
1982-86, peak:March 24, 1983 V-shaped lights Hudson Valley   more than 300
Nov1989-April1990,peak30/31Mar1990   Belgian Wave      approx. 13 500
Mar 30, 1993               The Cosford Incident                              hundreds
Sept 16, 1994              Ariel School, Zimbabwe                              62
March 13, 1997           Phoenix Lights                                    thousands
July 14, 2001               New Jersey Turnpike                                 15
Nov 7, 2006                Chicago O’Hare                                     hundreds
29 Oct, 2007                Kolkata,India                                        hundreds
Jan 8, 2008                  The Stephensville Lights                           40

Large Mass Sightings (all over 1000 people):
27 Oct, 1954                           Italian Stadium                                   10 000
Nov1989-April1990,peak30/31Mar1990   Belgian Wave      approx. 13 500
March 13, 1997                         Phoenix Lights                           thousands

Interval between 1st and 2nd sighting is 36 years.
Interval between 2nd and 3rd sighting is 7 years.

I reckon, there’s not enough data to establish an escalating number of large mass sightings. If a 4th sighting occurs in less than 7 years, let’s say in 4 years’ time then perhaps that would indicate an escalation in frequency?

Large Mass Sightings (all over a hundred people):
27 Oct, 1954                           Italian Stadium                                                10 000
April 6, 1966                          Westfall UFO Encounter, Australia               more than 200 prob. less than 230
1982-86, peak:March 24, 1983 V-shaped lights Hudson Valley               more than 300
Nov1989-April1990,peak30/31Mar1990   Belgian Wave                         approx. 13 500
Mar 30, 1993                          The Cosford Incident                                         hundreds
March 13, 1997                    Phoenix Lights                                                  thousands
Nov 7, 2006                           Chicago O’Hare                                                    hundreds
29 Oct, 2007                        Kolkata,India                                                      hundreds

Intervals between incidents in years: 12, 17, 7, 3, 4, 9, 1

Frequency fluctuates. It goes up and down. Conclusion: No escalation.

There may be more UFO sightings of all kinds* (i.e. by single individuals, small numbers as well as larger numbers of people) than ever before but how many of these are credible, and do not involve hoaxes? Of the large mass sightings how many can be discounted due to hoaxes or other explainable phenomena? The statement made that the UFO phenomenon shows that there is going to be something really big on the horizon is not well-founded according to this study done here.

However, looking at the data from another point of view, it can be readily seen that from 1954 onwards some very large mass sightings have occurred. I would say these are the largest mass sightings in human history (as far as we know), and they all occurred in the space of only 43 years (1997-1954=43), as opposed to all the millennia that have gone before. So, from that point of view, the really big UFO events have already manifested themselves.


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